May 9th: There May Be Trouble Ahead

Almost a week after the election, we're still no clearer as to the make-up of the new Scottish government, nor who will be the First Minister. Scottish politics is veering into uncharted waters.

There are still a whole number of different permutations and possibilities. The SNP and Greens seem to be in talks. But the British establishment and the Scottish media (same thing) are demanding that the SNP's commitment to holding a referendum on Independence be dropped in advance of any talks with the LibDems. The two Green MSPs appear (according to today's Scotsman) to have already caved in on their commitment to support an Independence Referendum.

The SNP for their part are talking about forging ahead with a minority government. Alex Salmond claimed yesterday that this has worked in Denmark since 1945. But this isn't Denmark. The British establishment will tolerate anyone in government, but they wont accept the break up of Britain without a fight. And they fight dirty.

So far Alex Salmond hasnt put a foot wrong, and the Scottish people are warming to the idea of him heading the government. But the road ahead is fraught with difficulties. As long as Alex Salmond and the SNP press ahead with their keynote policy - a commitment to publish a Referendum Bill in the first term of office - then they will continue to have the support of the Independence movement.

The British establishment will try to either incorporate the SNP into the fold, through a combination of carrots and sticks, or else they will use the media and all three Unionist parties to undermine and block the SNP at every step of the way. Should that happen the clamour for a recall election may begin to raise its head. More so, since legal challenges to the rejected votes have begun in earnest. Interesting times.